Keir Starmer's Allies Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Process

Several figures on the party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several insiders also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.