A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
