From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro

Amid the considerable disarray regarding the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – this establishes a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the early hours of Saturday marked its first major military attack on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another state and abduct its leader – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is converting it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will surely embolden additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may come to rue the day if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.